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The Real YEGman

Sad Day For Canada

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Sad day for political junkies, but hardly for Canadians. Political Junkies will have to go to Europe or perhaps wait for the comming USA election to get their fix.

As my wife and I walked out of the voting station last night, she commented on how much of waste to be voting again after 2008. My response at the time was that we would likely be back hear in the fall for another Federal Election. She stopped and tended to our daughter and asked why. Because a Conservative minority government is likely to fall and any minority government will be short lived. Latter that evening I texted her that Conservative Majority was secured. She responded asking what this meant to her. My response, no more federal election for 5 years.

My hope is that Harper/Flaherty will introduce nearly the same Budget as what was presented in March, and hopefuly all the liberal/NDP budget items remain intact (increase OAS and CPP).

One thing is for certain, if your a employee at the Canada Gun Registry or a member of CGI team charged with managing the IT system; polish up the resume.

My hope is that Harper will end the government support for federal party (e.g. the $2/vote and the money to compensate during the election). The NDP could get onside with this plan if the Conservatives open up to donations from labour parties. This will kill off both the Greens and Bloc sooner rather than later. While the Greens have 1 member in parliament, their popular support was cut in 1.2 this election. With no fund raising ability the national infrastructure cannot be built. The Bloc now has abasolutely no point in existing as a party. It would be easier for the four remaining MPs to to close up shop and move to the PQ and run provincially.

For the Liberals, they will have to figure out what to do over the next year and how to rebuild the party, if it can be salvaged. There have been a lot of comparissons in the media between 2011 Liberals and 1993 PCs. I believe the Liberals are in much worse shape than Conservatives.

On the Liberal infrastructure front, In 1993 the PC infrastructure migrated to the Reform party and the PCs still got 2.1 million votes in 1993, combined the PCs and Reform had 54 seats). The Reform/PC infrastructure remained in the West and was reunited in 2003 with Ontario and Atlantic PC infrastructure. The liberals don't have anything near this level of infrastructure that has survived. 1/3 of Liberal MPs come from Atlantic Canada, Toronto is the only other major area of infrastructure and representation. In QC, the federal liberal infrastructure and back office will likely move over to the NDP (why cause that's where the popularity is located) with some going to the Conservatives.

On the Liberal Leadership front, who replaces Iggy and do they replace Iggy until through the next election. If the liberals are smart, they would elect an interim leader from existing Liberal ranks. The Interim leader would operate the party until just before the next election on 2015/2016. The Liberal party would then switch to an outside party member to lead them through ther next election. This would allow the interim leader to take all the attack ads and barbs in order for a new clean candidate. If the liberals are not smart, they will elect a permanent leader and what the person's popularity slide away from constant attack ads.

- Interim Leader: Stephane Dion, Bob Rae, or Carolyn Bennett.

- New final leadership: Outside the political party likel Naheed Nenshi (Current Calgary mayor), Atlantic Canada Premier, or someone outside the Liberal leader spotlight like Scott Brison.

- Alternately merge with the NDP and offer Jack Layton et al the infrastructure support and a few MPs for the shadow cabinet. Allow blue liberals to leave and go to Conservatives, if they have not done so all ready.

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Interesting being in Calgary tonight with a group from across Canada and seeing the Quebec contingent buying Champagne for everyone to celebrate.

Celebrating for the NDP?!

Still stone silence from Oakville...

perhaps he drown in his bottle. :roll:

Or perhaps out of town on business and not free to post on the Internet ? :idea:

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perhaps he drown in his bottle. :roll:

Or perhaps out of town on business and not free to post on the Internet ? :idea:

Not nearly as interesting as why fly's version.

:arrow: Sure isn't.

Sometimes the facts just get in the way of a good fantasy. Seems to happen frequently on the Internet. Funny, that.

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NordsFan:

I have lived off and on in Quebec and from that time I view the Quebec electorate (outside the Montreal island) as being a fickle sort that will go with the wind. Liberal under Trudeau, Conservative under Mulrooney, Bloq for a time and now NDP. What might be next?

Do you see the Quebec popular support for the NDP lasting into the next election or will some other Messiah from Quebec come along and divert the vote?

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But actually a good day for Canada as the stranglehold of the Bloc has been broken and Quebec is once again very much in play. That was the key factor for continuing minority governments. Guess the Carleton Students Union pub will have to find a new bartender. She just got elected an MP from Gatineau!

Not Gatineau, it is three hours away from Ottawa. The NDP that were elected in Gatineau are actually quite experienced.

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exAC,

You are correct, Quebec voters can be a fickle bunch and when they decide it's time for a change, a big change occurs.

Contrary to other Canadians, I don't think Quebecers take politics or party affiliations as seriously; we tend to latch on to an individual's personality and give them a chance (hence the "Messiah" theme you correctly mentioned).

The other thing that needs to be remembered is that unless there is a compelling reason to vote with the majority (i.e. the Trudeau Liberals 68-84, Mulroney PCs 84-92), Quebecers will generally seek some form of counter-balance and vote for the "other side". This partially explains the shift to the NDP last night and also why the Bloc was sent back to Ottawa with decent numbers for 20 years. It's about making sure that the Big Guys don't have 100% control over your destiny. That’s just being smart IMO.

More importantly, politics are simply a tool to get something that you want or need, not at all about being in the right "club" with the popular crowd.

This is a smart and strategic way to vote IMO because the Government of Canada can't and won't simply ignore Quebec for 4 to 5 years, even if the number of seats given to the maority party is relatively low. Quebecers only give a little bit of their love and will wait to be wooed for next time..... At the same time, Quebecers will use the make-up of the provincial parliament as a second form of counter-balance depending on how they feel things are going in Ottawa.

Folks should always remember that very few people in Quebec actually like Gilles Duceppe and what he said he stood for. After all these years many began to question the BQ's raison d'être in the Federal Parliament; the answer was given last night. However, the idea that the so-called "sovereignist" movement is dead is untrue. There will always be a part of the population (maybe 25-30%) who will keep those aspirations alive. How these ideas are transformed and brought into mainstream party politics is something else entirely.

While the BQ was there, Quebec issues were raised daily and like it or not, remained on the agenda. That will now be Tom Mulcair's job (the guy to watch in the next 4-5 years IMO). If Mulcair and Layton don't do the job, Jean Charest will at least pretend to try (Charest and Harper do not get along AT ALL, but it's a safe bet that relations between Mulcair and Charest are worse). If Charest doesn't do it, the voters will give the PQ (under Pauline Marois or someone else...) or perhaps another yet unknown party a chance.

Quebecers will also vote for the underdog, hence the move to Jack Layton (who is liked by most Quebecers, whether they voted for him or not). Not true for Duceppe or Ignatieff. Mr. Harper is not disliked, but slightly feared, hence it’s not possible for him to get a majority of seats in the province.

I think that the big question is : will Jack be around for the next 5 years ? Not sure, that's why Mulcair is the guy to watch federally. Also on the watch-list: the results of the next provincial election (last one was December 2008) and Jean Charest’s imprending decision on what he wants to do.

A few random thoughts !

I will now go have a beer with a friend who was the regional organizer for a Big National Party that got stomped last night. His daughter, however, was elected as an NDP MP, beating the BQ incumbent who held the seat, one of Canada's oldest, since 1993.

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But actually a good day for Canada as the stranglehold of the Bloc has been broken and Quebec is once again very much in play. That was the key factor for continuing minority governments. Guess the Carleton Students Union pub will have to find a new bartender. She just got elected an MP from Gatineau!

Ruth Ellen Brosseau was elected as NDPer in riding of Berthier-Maskinongé, just West of Trois-Rivières. The area is especially famous for being the hometown of F1 great, the late Gilles Villeneuve. There is a museum to his memory in Berthierville.

Also, the Mikes restaurant in Berthierville, at exit 144 off of A-40, is owned by Guy Lafleur. The place was recently operating under the name "Guy Lafleur's Bleu Blanc Rouge Mike's Restaurant" or something along those lines. I'm going to Montreal tomorrow evening, so I can change my plans and take A-40 instead of A-20 to confirm if anyone is interested ? ! :lol:

The distance between Lafleur's Berthierville restaurant and the Parliament of Canada is 265 kms, or just slightly over 3 hours driving time. :lol:

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In reviewing the numbers in general from last night I think there is something of note in that this is the first time in modern Canadian politics (maybe forever) that a party has won a majority without winning Quebec.

That just might affect the influence that Quebec has for the next 4 years and onward.

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In reviewing the numbers in general from last night I think there is something of note in that this is the first time in modern Canadian politics (maybe forever) that a party has won a majority without winning Quebec.

That just might affect the influence that Quebec has for the next 4 years and onward.

Slight correction to the above statement. This is the first time in Canadian history that the majority government has won without also winning Montreal. Chretien won 2.3 majority elections whereby the Bloc had one more seats in Quebec (1993 Bloc had 54 seats and official opposition status). Chretien however consistently won Montreal and Eastern Townships, giving him at least 20 seats to pull together 5-8 cabinet ministers.

By next election there will be 24 new ridings in Ontario, Alberta, and BC; the new Conservative heartland. This will further push down the significance of Quebec and Atlantic Canada (the new opposition support base).

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Slight correction to the above statement. This is the first time in Canadian history that the majority government has won without also winning Montreal. Chretien won 2.3 majority elections whereby the Bloc had one more seats in Quebec (1993 Bloc had 54 seats and official opposition status). Chretien however consistently won Montreal and Eastern Townships, giving him at least 20 seats to pull together 5-8 cabinet ministers.

By next election there will be 24 new ridings in Ontario, Alberta, and BC; the new Conservative heartland. This will further push down the significance of Quebec and Atlantic Canada (the new opposition support base).

That just might affect the influence that Quebec has for the next 4 years and onward.

Interesting analysis.

This will make provincial politics, in Quebec and elsewhere, all the more interesting in the years to come, especially if the Conservatives take a less "centralizing" view of the fed/prov relationship. Charest and McGuinty are pretty tight and there is a new simmering dispute between QC and Nfld-Lab on electricity projects that Mr. Harper let loose at the start of the campaign just to grab some Newfie votes, IMHO.

The NDP's campaign in Quebec included all sorts of stuff that encroached on provincial jurisdiction. Will they now stand in the House and push for more federal intervention in provincial matters ? That will get Charest to react as the "voice" of Quebec and force some of the neophyte NDP MPs from Quebec into some tough decisions that may hurt them on the street in their ridings, setting up more change next time around.

It's all about the counter-balance. Change the number of federal electroral districts in a province and the relative power given to the provincial governments will be increased by the voters.

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In reviewing the numbers in general from last night I think there is something of note in that this is the first time in modern Canadian politics (maybe forever) that a party has won a majority without winning Quebec.

That just might affect the influence that Quebec has for the next 4 years and onward.

Ignoring Quebec is a tactic that hasn't worked too well in forming long-lived govt's.

A few other slightly interesting notes:

- Conservatives have MPs in every province and 2 of 3 territorial seats.

- Liberals shutout of Alberta (of course) and Territories

- Despite increasing their popular vote % the NDP gained no extra seats in their historical Prairie strongholds of SK and MB

- Green party elects 1st MP in Saanich-Gulf Islands (hippie land)

And, no one can explain to me why Hedy Fry continues to win Vancouver Centre.

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internet was working yesterday in MLL :)

Agreed.

As a Habs fan would say;

Nah nah ,nah nah nah nah,hey hey hey, goodbye (Liberals) :P:shock:

Lets start a "what will parnels new moniker/line be now?

Liberals will be back,in 2050 :twisted: lets start a annual parade of Liberal futility :lol::lol::lol:

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internet was working yesterday in MLL :)

Agreed.

As a Habs fan would say;

Nah nah ,nah nah nah nah,hey hey hey, goodbye (Liberals) :P:shock:

Lets start a "what will parnels new moniker/line be now?

Liberals will be back,in 2050 :twisted: lets start a annual parade of Liberal futility :lol::lol::lol:

Maybe it'll say "Socialist Bob Rae leadership campaign executive" :lol::lol:

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As a Habs fan would say;

Nah nah ,nah nah nah nah,hey hey hey, goodbye (Liberals) :P:shock:

Lets start a "what will parnels new moniker/line be now?

Liberals will be back,in 2050 :twisted: lets start a annual parade of Liberal futility :lol::lol::lol:

Maybe it'll say "Socialist Bob Rae leadership campaign executive" :lol::lol:

It must be tough on Parnel. I almost feel sorry for him... Almost. :lol::lol::lol:

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A wise and stocky fellow (wasn't me ! :wink: ) once said: “In war, resolution; in defeat, defiance; in victory, magnanimity".

Can we talk about the NHL playoffs or the World Hockey Championships now ?

Tampa is surprising. Flyers are disappointing.

I also found a Stanly Cup futures chit from the Bellagio from June 2010; I had put $20 down on the Red Wings at 40-1; they need to improve their game in the current series.

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It must be tough on Parnel. I almost feel sorry for him... Almost. :lol::lol::lol:

Its never tough. I participate fully in the democratic process unlike those who simply post nonsense here and I have eaccpted the results...badly but accepted

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It must be tough on Parnel. I almost feel sorry for him... Almost. :lol::lol::lol:

Its never tough. I participate fully in the democratic process unlike those who simply post nonsense here and I have eaccpted the results...badly but accepted

parnel, I congratulate you on putting in considerable time and effort working on your candidate's campaign. Volunteer work on behalf of those who seek elected office is an important contribution to the process. ^

That being said, it always sucks to lose. :x

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