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Q Shoe Guy

2011 Canada Votes seat/vote predictions!

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Parnel, you did not canvass hard enough in your Oakville riding! :wink:

Obviously I'm ecstatic, having waited 15 years for a Reform - I mean Conservative majority and I'm sure the hardcore socialists are pleased at having a stronger voice in Ottawa. Too bad for them that all those "poor ignorant, uneducated" people that live in the GTA voted Conservative :roll:

As much as everyone is stuck in their opinions, we should all be happy to see the BQ rightfully decimated! The old separatists are finally dying off. :P

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As much as everyone is stuck in their opinions, we should all be happy to see the BQ rightfully decimated! The old separatists are finally dying off. :P

+1

Not sure if it really means that the separatists are dying off or that Quebec has collectively come to its senses and voted for a party of broad policies rather than one of single-minded obsession that was useless to their everyday lives.

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Not sure if it really means that the separatists are dying off or that Quebec has collectively come to its senses and voted for a party of broad policies rather than one of single-minded obsession that was useless to their everyday lives.

The separatists will merely take their vote to Pauline Marois and the PQ in the next provincial election, where it can and will do great damage to Canada. Odds are now greatly increased that the Tories will preside over the demise of Canada as we know it.

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Not sure if it really means that the separatists are dying off or that Quebec has collectively come to its senses and voted for a party of broad policies rather than one of single-minded obsession that was useless to their everyday lives.

The separatists will merely take their vote to Pauline Marois and the PQ in the next provincial election, where it can and will do great damage to Canada. Odds are now greatly increased that the Tories will preside over the demise of Canada as we know it.

You are equating the separation of Quebec with the demise of Canada. I think and argument could be made to the contrary.

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Let's look back shall we at my prediction of March 26

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=5884

Liberals get wiped off the electoral map

Man! Do I know how to call 'em! :lol::lol:

The next 4 years is gonna been fun around here poking the blowhard Hypogrits in the eye at every oportunity with these results! ^

You would have impressed me more if you had put a better seat count prediction on page 1 of this thread LOL. Not that I can brag because I suggested in another thread that the NDP support in Quebec would only cause them to lose by a little instead of lose by a lot LOL.

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Would have liked to participate in the forecast but for professional reasons I could not since it would have been perceived breach of confidence and a conflict with a client during the campaign. Suffice to say, this was one of the more difficult elections for pollsters, because many were testing new forms of sampling and assembling panels and the like. But it appears the old fashioned ways are still pretty accurate and land line calling tends to still coincide with those who actually vote, versus online/twitterers and cell users make a lot of noise but fail to get to the polls.

But the widespread flight of voters from the Liberals in the ROC (and Quebecers' failure to return to the Liberal fold) plus the rejection of the Bloc wholesale within la belle province taking asylum in the NDP, along with the ROC's protest vote coalescing in the NDP (our own form of Tea Party protest?) has definitely changed the political landscape. (And part of that shift from Liberal to NDP led to a greater split in the vote letting the Conservatives to take more seats in Ontario than might otherwise have been the case.)

Now, who's going to forecast when Iggy steps down?

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So does this mean we dont have to listen to Parnel tell us Dion will be our next prime minister then Iggy will be our next prime minister... WOW another 4 years of the Conservatives in Oakville.

Interesting 2 seats in Quebec went to NDP candidates that were on holiday, and Bernard Trottier, the francophone Albertan who defeated Mr. Ignatieff in his Toronto riding lol didn't campaign!

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Oakville riding went 50.1% to conservatives

This affluent southern Ontario riding is on the shores of Lake Ontario, about 40 kilometres west of Toronto.

It contains part of the town of Oakville, stretching from Lake Ontario to Upper Middle Road West, Eighth Line and Dundas Street East, between Winston Churchill Boulevard in the east and Burloak Drive to the west.

The riding of Oakville-Milton was created in 1986 from most of Halton riding. It became Oakville riding in the 1996 redistribution. In 2004, a small portion of Halton riding was added in the northeast.

Population: 113,714 (2006 census; an increase of 3.7% since 2001)

Political History

Conservative Terence Young defeated Liberal Bonnie Brown by 5,583 votes in 2008.

In 2006, Brown beat Young with a margin of 744 votes. In 2004, Brown defeated Conservative Rick Byers by 9,205 votes. Byers had been elected in Oakville-Milton. This riding and its predecessor, Halton riding, have traditionally swung between supporting Tories and Liberals.

From 1979 to 1983, the MP for Halton was Conservative Otto Jelinek, who was minister of state for fitness and amateur sport, minister of state for multiculturalism and minister of supply and services

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Now, who's going to forecast when Iggy steps down?

I think he announces today or tomorrow his intention to step down when a new leader is chosen. Or he might go sooner if they do the interim leader thing.

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Ignatieff will step down this morning, if not within the next 2 days.

The Budget debate is going to get very interesting. So will the question period debate Not for the raucus reasons but because parliament has not seen majority rule in the last 5 years. Majority governments don't put themselves in contempt of parliament or order themselves to release documents they don't want to. The NDP is going to take until atleast the fall session to get thier head into the Official Opposition game. Their MP bench strength is about 1 inch deep.

Three big questions:

1. What happens to the Bloc's four seats? I mean its not out of the realm of possibilities the Bloc MPs all quit and by elections are called in the next 6 months.

2. Ellie May will have to learn how to operate as an indepentant MP, the cold media shoulder did get warm this morning - it just changed location to the HoC.

3. Who will be in Layton's shadow cabinet? Chow, Mulcair, Dewar, L Davies are all shoe-ins, but where is the bench strength.

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The NDP is going to have fun keeping their own caucus under control and perhaps even in attendance. They had many candidates elected that were simply names to fill lines on the ballot with no expectation of winning. They do have an experienced core, but as one pundit suggested last night, each experienced NDP MP is going to be babysitting 1 or 2 newbies.

1. I'd like to see the Bloc quit and vanish but I don't think it is going to happen.

2. Elizabeth May will have a bit of a honeymoon with the media but without official party status she will fade to obscurity fast. With a clear majority party and clear opposition party, there is no incentive for any party to throw here a bone.

3. Layton has enough experienced MPs to form a shadow cabinet, if they aren't too busy babysitting the newbies.

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